UK consumer confidence rose in June, but Middle East tensions and energy costs cloud the outlook

UK June Consumer Confidence Reaches New High of the Year

According to data released by market research company GfK on Foreign exchange options tradingFriday, the UK consumer confidence index rose to -18 in June, an improvement from May's -20, reaching the highest level since 2025. This data reflects the increased optimism of the British public about the economic outlook, especially as inflation gradually eases and interest rate policies stabilize.

However, GfK pointed out that the current index still falls below the long-term average of -11 and has not returned to the normal range seen before the pandemic, indicating that the recovery in confidence remains fragile.

Middle East Tensions Raise Inflation Expectations

Despite the improvement in confidence, ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East cast a shadow over the UK's economic outlook. Since the end of May, Brent crude oil prices have risen by about 20%. UK consumers may face renewed pressure from rising fuel prices in the coming weeks.

The Bank of England also stated this Thursday that it is closely monitoring the potential impact of the situation between Israel and Iran on inflation. As energy is a significant component of inflation, any geopolitical risks could trigger a chain reaction, particularly in the UK, where energy prices are already high.

Uncertainty Remains in Consumer Spending Outlook

Neil Bellamy, GfK's Head of Consumer Insights, noted in a statement, "With the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East, gasoline prices will further increase, and uncertainties related to tariffs remain." He emphasized that these factors could suppress UK consumers' purchasing power in the short term.

The report also showed that although the outlook on the national economy has improved, the confidence index measuring personal financial situation remained unchanged in June. This means that while people are optimistic about the macroeconomy, they remain cautious about their financial abilities.

Caution

Market analysts pointed out that although British consumer sentiment has improved, it still faces challenges from energy price fluctuations, inflation uncertainty, and global geopolitical tensions. In the coming months, if oil prices continue to rise, it could again affect consumer spending, thereby dragging down the momentum of overall economic recovery.

In addition, how the Bank of England balances inflation and interest rate adjustments will also become a key factor in affecting the continued recovery of consumer confidence.

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